BEGIN:VCALENDAR VERSION:2.0 PRODID:researchseminars.org CALSCALE:GREGORIAN X-WR-CALNAME:researchseminars.org BEGIN:VEVENT SUMMARY:Yoh Iwasa (Kwansei Gakuin University) DTSTART:20210125T201000Z DTEND:20210125T205500Z DTSTAMP:20260404T041447Z UID:BIRS_21w5191/1 DESCRIPTION:Title: Persistence of corruption: an evolutionary game theory motivat ed by illegal logging in tropics\nby Yoh Iwasa (Kwansei Gakuin Univers ity) as part of BIRS workshop: Mathematics of Human Environmental Systems\ n\n\nAbstract\nIllegal logging is a serious threat to plantations in the t ropics. Here\, we study the coupled dynamics of Social-Ecological systems shedding light of two different aspects.\n[1] We examined the roles of pro fit-sharing in plantation management strategy in a dynamic game model. The model assumes that the owner chooses the age of the trees to be harvested and the local people choose their level of monitoring effort to prevent i llegal logging with surveillance. After the trees are removed\, the owner hires local people to replant young trees. Dynamic optimization analysis r evealed that\, under the pressure of illegal logging\, the owner may find it profitable to share harvesting profits with the local people to enhance their surveillance effort. The profit-sharing rate optimal to the owner d epends on the rate of natural disturbance\, faster future discount rate\, and a higher cost of replanting.\n[2] Cooperation can be sustained by inst itutions that punish free-riders. Such institutions\, however\, tend to be subverted by corruption if they are not closely watched. Monitoring can u phold the enforcement of binding agreements ensuring cooperation\, but thi s usually comes at a price. The temptation to skip monitoring and take the institution’s integrity for granted leads to outbreaks of corruption an d the breakdown of cooperation. We model the corresponding mechanism by me ans of evolutionary game theory\, using analytical methods and numerical s imulations\, and find that it leads to sustained or damped oscillations. T he results confirm the view that corruption is endemic and transparency a major factor in reducing it.\nLee\, J-H.\, Y. Kubo\, T. Fujiwara\, R.M. Se ptianad\, S. Riyantod\, and Y. Iwasa. 2018. Profit sharing as a management strategy for a state-owned teak plantation at high risk for illegal loggi ng. Ecological Economics 149\, 140-148.\nLee\, J-H\, Y. Iwasa\, U. Dieckma nn\, and K. Sigmund. 2019 Social evolution leads to persistent corruption. PNAS 116\, 13276-13281.\n LOCATION:https://stable.researchseminars.org/talk/BIRS_21w5191/1/ END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT SUMMARY:Christopher Heggerud (University of Alberta) DTSTART:20210125T210000Z DTEND:20210125T213000Z DTSTAMP:20260404T041447Z UID:BIRS_21w5191/2 DESCRIPTION:Title: Christopher Heggerud: Coupling the socio-economic and ecologic al dynamics of cyanobacteria\nby Christopher Heggerud (University of A lberta) as part of BIRS workshop: Mathematics of Human Environmental Syste ms\n\n\nAbstract\nCyanobacterial (CB) blooms are becoming a global concern due to the increasing prevalence of eutrophication. The dependence of CB dynamics on phosphorus and light inputs is modeled via a stoichiometric ap proach and the transient dynamics are discussed. We then couple the CB mod el to a socio-economic model governing the anthropogenic nutrient inputs. We assume that the human population is made up of cooperators and defector s and that each strategy has an associated cost dependent on social pressu re and norms\, concern for CB\, and effort. We find that the human populat ion at a single lake exhibits bistability. Further\, in considering a netw ork of lakes the level of cooperation is highly dependent on social norms. \n LOCATION:https://stable.researchseminars.org/talk/BIRS_21w5191/2/ END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT SUMMARY:Eli Fenichel (Yale University) DTSTART:20210125T220000Z DTEND:20210125T224500Z DTSTAMP:20260404T041447Z UID:BIRS_21w5191/3 DESCRIPTION:Title: Eli Fenichel: Getting human behavior into epidemiology models< /a>\nby Eli Fenichel (Yale University) as part of BIRS workshop: Mathemati cs of Human Environmental Systems\n\n\nAbstract\nInfectious disease modeli ng efforts are emblematic of the challenges of modeling coupled human-envi ronmental systems. These challenges exist conceptually\, theoretically\, a nd empirically\, and are made more challenging by disciplinary norms. COVI D-19 has pumped substantial amounts of energy into interdisciplinary and m ultidisciplinary approaches to epidemiological modeling. However\, I see m any of the over-simplifications\, related to challenges we have struggled with for over 10 years\, finding their way into high profile reports and p ublications that are guiding policy response. The challenges start with im plicit disciplinary disagreement about what is being modeled and why. They are further complicated by scaling issues\, which are tightly connected t o disciplinary views of model assessment that point back to the reasons fo r modeling. In this talk\, I will describe my lessons learned and outline a research program for couple human-epidemiological modeling going forward with the goal of providing insights for other human-environmental modelin g and for public health.\n LOCATION:https://stable.researchseminars.org/talk/BIRS_21w5191/3/ END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT SUMMARY:Rebecca Tyson (University of British Columbia - Okanagan) DTSTART:20210125T225000Z DTEND:20210125T232000Z DTSTAMP:20260404T041447Z UID:BIRS_21w5191/4 DESCRIPTION:Title: Rebecca Tyson: CHANS with Opinion Dynamics\nby Rebecca Tys on (University of British Columbia - Okanagan) as part of BIRS workshop: M athematics of Human Environmental Systems\n\n\nAbstract\nCHANS models freq uently incorporate the human component using a game theoretic framework. I n this work\, we present a different approach where opinion dynamics are m odeled explicitly\, giving us access to social behaviours such as amplific ation and polarization. We study the behaviour of the opinion dynamics in isolation\, and then couple them to disease dynamics to study the interact ion\nbetween the two. We propose that our approach allows for the inclusio n of human behaviours that are difficult to access via traditional CHANS m odelling\, and that might have important consequences for the management o f ecological systems.\nCo-Authors: Noah Marshall\, Stephen M. Krone\, Bert O. Baumgaertner\n LOCATION:https://stable.researchseminars.org/talk/BIRS_21w5191/4/ END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT SUMMARY:Frank Hilker (Osnabrück University) DTSTART:20210126T200000Z DTEND:20210126T204500Z DTSTAMP:20260404T041447Z UID:BIRS_21w5191/6 DESCRIPTION:Title: Comparison between best-response dynamics and replicator dynam ics in a social-ecological model of lake eutrophication\nby Frank Hilk er (Osnabrück University) as part of BIRS workshop: Mathematics of Human Environmental Systems\n\n\nAbstract\nHuman behavior can be modeled by desc ribing\, on a collective level\, the adoption of certain strategies by ind ividual agents. Many models use either the replicator dynamics (RD) or the logit formulation of the best-response (BR). How do RD and BR differ\, an d does the distinction matter? This talk gives a brief overview of the two behavioral models\, both of which originate from evolutionary game theory . Their differences are illustrated in the context of a social-ecological model for eutrophication in shallow lakes\, where the anthropogenic discha rge of pollutants into the water is determined by RD or BR. It will be sho wn that the replicator equation is a limit case of the best-response model \, when agents are assumed to behave with infinite rationality. If agents act less rationally in BR\, the correspondence with RD decreases\; the two model versions can differ substantially regarding the number of possible equilibria\, the potential for multistability\, and the type of sustained oscillations. Consequently\, the choice of the behavioral model may profou ndly affect the overall dynamics of a coupled human-environment system and deserves careful consideration. Joint work with Anthony Sun\n LOCATION:https://stable.researchseminars.org/talk/BIRS_21w5191/6/ END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT SUMMARY:Mayuko Nakamaru (Tokyo Institute of Technology) DTSTART:20210126T205000Z DTEND:20210126T213500Z DTSTAMP:20260404T041447Z UID:BIRS_21w5191/7 DESCRIPTION:Title: Ecological features benefiting sustainable harvesters in socio -ecological systems: A case study of swiftlets in Malaysia\nby Mayuko Nakamaru (Tokyo Institute of Technology) as part of BIRS workshop: Mathema tics of Human Environmental Systems\n\n\nAbstract\nIf sustainable harveste rs could benefit more than the unsustainable ones\, even in the short term \, the overharvesting problem in ecosystem would be solved. However\, it i s not an easy task. There is a special case: swiftlets in Sarawak\, Malays ia\, where sustainable harvesters are believed to obtain a more return tha n unsustainable harvesters in the short term. Edible nests built by adult swiftlets are used as ingredients for a Chinese traditional soup. There is a local knowledge that\, once unsustainable harvesters harvest the nests on the cave ceilings\, swiftlets escape from the cave and never come back to the same place. This ecological behavior works as the swiftlet's indire ct punishment against unsustainable harvesters. We make a stage-structured population model and examines the effect of property rights and the indir ect punishment by swiftlets on the population dynamics of the swiftlets\, and on the short-term return of both sustainable and unsustainable harvest ers. Following are our findings: both the indirect punishment by swiftlets and the property rights system are required to provide sustainable harves ters with a higher short-term return than unsustainable harvesters. We wou ld like to discuss the possibility to apply this model to other ecosystem managements.\n LOCATION:https://stable.researchseminars.org/talk/BIRS_21w5191/7/ END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT SUMMARY:Akiko Satake (Kyushu University) DTSTART:20210126T220500Z DTEND:20210126T225000Z DTSTAMP:20260404T041447Z UID:BIRS_21w5191/8 DESCRIPTION:Title: Coupled social and ecological systems in forested landscape\nby Akiko Satake (Kyushu University) as part of BIRS workshop: Mathemati cs of Human Environmental Systems\n\n\nAbstract\nLandscape change is the o utcome of both natural and anthropogenic disturbances. Natural disturbance s (e.g.\, forest fires\, land slides\, and floods) are episodic and stocha stic events that occur across a wide range of spatial and temporal scales. Anthropogenic disturbances (e.g.\, forest clearance for agriculture\, tim ber harvest\, or pasture) also occur at various temporal and spatial scale s\, but often at a faster rate and a more extensive scale than natural dis turbances. Deforestation is especially an important environmental problem because of its impact on biodiversity\, carbon cycling associated with glo bal climate\, biogeochemical cycling\, and other ecosystem functions. A ke y factor inducing landscape change is the human behavior that underlies th ese changes. The simplest way to consider this is to develop a model which traces the responses of landowners to the change of socioeconomic and eco logical conditions. We introduce a Markov chain model for land-use dynamic s in a forested landscape [1─4]. The model emphasizes the importance of coupling socioeconomic and ecological processes underlying landscape chang es. \n\nReferences\n[1] Satake A\, Iwasa Y (2006) Coupled ecological and s ocial dynamics in a forested landscape: the deviation of the individual de cisions from the social optimum. Ecological Research 21\, 370–379.\n[2] Satake A\, Rudel TK (2007) Modelling the forest transition: forest scarcit y and ecosystem service hypotheses. \nEcological Applications 17\, 2024– 2036.\n[3] Satake A\, Janssen MA\, Levin SA\, Iwasa Y (2007) Collective de forestation induced by social learning under uncertainty of forest-use val ue. \nEcological Economics 63\, 452–462.\n[4] Satake A\, Rudel TK\, Onum a A (2008) Scale mismatches and their ecological and economic effects on l andscapes: a spatially explicit model. \nGlobal Environmental Change 18\, 768–775.\n LOCATION:https://stable.researchseminars.org/talk/BIRS_21w5191/8/ END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT SUMMARY:Alan Hastings (University of California - Davis) DTSTART:20210127T200000Z DTEND:20210127T204500Z DTSTAMP:20260404T041447Z UID:BIRS_21w5191/10 DESCRIPTION:Title: Role of Transients in Human Environmental Systems\nby Ala n Hastings (University of California - Davis) as part of BIRS workshop: Ma thematics of Human Environmental Systems\n\n\nAbstract\nI will show how un derstanding transient behavior is important in the management of ecologica l systems and discuss recent results that provide a general framework for understanding transient dynamics. The simplest transients arise in linear systems\, where the cessation of fishing after implementation of a marine reserve provides an example which is both illustrative and important. I will discuss how dynamics after or near a ‘tipping point’ are another key example. More generally\, I will show how human-environmental systems are typically a mix of different time scales which makes transients likel y. I will emphasize how the need to understand dynamics on different time scales makes an understanding of transients essential\, and illustrate th is and other aspects with examples.\n LOCATION:https://stable.researchseminars.org/talk/BIRS_21w5191/10/ END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT SUMMARY:Chris Bauch (University of Waterloo) DTSTART:20210127T205000Z DTEND:20210127T213500Z DTSTAMP:20260404T041447Z UID:BIRS_21w5191/11 DESCRIPTION:Title: Early warning signals of critical transitions in coupled huma n-environment systems: leveraging data science with dynamical systems\ nby Chris Bauch (University of Waterloo) as part of BIRS workshop: Mathema tics of Human Environmental Systems\n\n\nAbstract\nModelling coupled human -environment systems is becoming an increasingly urgent research priority. Coupling human dynamics to environmental dynamics in mathematical models introduces higher dimensionality and thus novel dynamics. This creates bo th challenges and opportunities for predicting critical transitions with e arly warning signals based on effects like critical slowing down. In this talk\, I will summarize work that shows how feedback from human systems c an muffle early warning signals of collapse in an environmental system\; h ow feedback can ‘doom’ a human-environment system to self-evolved crit icality\; how timescale differences mean that early warning signals of hum an-environment collapse can be more apparent in the human system than the environment system\; and how machine learning algorithms\, in concert with dynamical systems insights\, can be used to enhance our ability to provid e early warning of such transitions.\n LOCATION:https://stable.researchseminars.org/talk/BIRS_21w5191/11/ END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT SUMMARY:Andrew Tilman (University of Pennsylvania) DTSTART:20210127T220500Z DTEND:20210127T225000Z DTSTAMP:20260404T041447Z UID:BIRS_21w5191/12 DESCRIPTION:Title: Environmental forecasting and human-environmental dynamics\nby Andrew Tilman (University of Pennsylvania) as part of BIRS workshop: Mathematics of Human Environmental Systems\n\n\nAbstract\nEco-evolutionar y game theory provides a framework for the analysis of human-environmental dynamics. In an eco-evolutionary game\, strategies of individuals impact the environment and the state of the environment alters the payoff structu re that individuals face\, generating feedback. This feedback can lead to persistent cyclical environmental overshoot. In the model of eco-evolution ary games that I will present\, we examine the impact of environmental for ecasting on cyclic human-environmental dynamics. We find that if individua ls make forecasts of the environment and integrate these forecasts into th eir strategy updating process\, environmental stability can be achieved. N ext\, I will share a model of competition between forecasting and non-fore casting types in a human-environmental system to explore whether forecasti ng types can invade and generate environmental stability. \nCoauthors: Vit or Vasconcelos\, Erol Akcay\, Joshua Plotkin\n LOCATION:https://stable.researchseminars.org/talk/BIRS_21w5191/12/ END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT SUMMARY:Nina Fefferman (University of Tennessee) DTSTART:20210128T200000Z DTEND:20210128T204500Z DTSTAMP:20260404T041447Z UID:BIRS_21w5191/14 DESCRIPTION:Title: Humans as Ecosystem Engineers of the Pathogen Landscape\n by Nina Fefferman (University of Tennessee) as part of BIRS workshop: Math ematics of Human Environmental Systems\n\n\nAbstract\nHumans shape nearly every aspect of our environment\, from purposeful elimination of rural pre dators to the altered soil chemistry of urban settings. These changes have both direct and indirect effects on the evolution and ecology of pathogen s. In this talk\, we will touch briefly on the obvious\, direct efforts to control pathogen systems (e.g.\, antibiotics use) and then spend the majo rity of time discussing indirect impacts of modern human systems that can profoundly impact the evolution and ecology of pathogens. We will discuss a few toy models that highlight these effects and discuss a potential fram ework for understanding the cascading impacts and bidirectional feedbacks between humans and the pathogen landscape in which we live.\n LOCATION:https://stable.researchseminars.org/talk/BIRS_21w5191/14/ END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT SUMMARY:Junling Ma (University of Victoria) DTSTART:20210128T205000Z DTEND:20210128T213500Z DTSTAMP:20260404T041447Z UID:BIRS_21w5191/15 DESCRIPTION:Title: Time of infections of SI epidemics on networks of cities\, fa rms\, or individual\nby Junling Ma (University of Victoria) as part of BIRS workshop: Mathematics of Human Environmental Systems\n\n\nAbstract\n A novel probabilistic approach is presented for obtaining the probability distribu- tion of infection time for SI disease epidemics on a finite netw ork specified as a fixed weighted digraph. Individuals (network nodes) are classified as either susceptible or infectious\, with transmission rates along weighted network arcs. The model is ap- propriate for diseases with no recovery\, or for the initial outbreak of diseases with recovery. Our m ethod to analyze the model yields the exact probability distribution for t he time at which a given individual in the network becomes infected. This can also be used to compute the probability that any given individual is i nfected as well as the expected number of infectious individuals at any ti me. Examples of simple networks illustrate the utility of the method. Node s can also be identified more generally\, such as farms or cities\, and th e method can be applied to biological networks with estimated transmission rates on the network arcs.\n LOCATION:https://stable.researchseminars.org/talk/BIRS_21w5191/15/ END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT SUMMARY:David Finnoff (University of Wyoming) DTSTART:20210128T220500Z DTEND:20210128T225000Z DTSTAMP:20260404T041447Z UID:BIRS_21w5191/16 DESCRIPTION:Title: Human behavior in economic-epidemiological systems\nby Da vid Finnoff (University of Wyoming) as part of BIRS workshop: Mathematics of Human Environmental Systems\n\n\nAbstract\nWe investigate the dynamics of epidemiological bifurcations in systems where individuals optimally alt er behavior in the face of endogenous disease risk. The bifurcations can l ead to aggregate instability\, which introduces the potential for less pre dictable outcomes from public health policies and welfare losses. For inst ance\, health policies designed to lower the transmission probability or p olicies designed to raise the quality-of-life following infection generate endogenous human responses that may push endemic equilibria from being st able to exhibiting instability or indeterminacy with the possibility of un intended consequences from public health policy.\n LOCATION:https://stable.researchseminars.org/talk/BIRS_21w5191/16/ END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT SUMMARY:Madhur Anand (University of Guelph) DTSTART:20210129T200000Z DTEND:20210129T204500Z DTSTAMP:20260404T041447Z UID:BIRS_21w5191/18 DESCRIPTION:Title: What can we learn from mathematical models of ourselves? Exam ples from forest pest spread to climate change mitigation.\nby Madhur Anand (University of Guelph) as part of BIRS workshop: Mathematics of Huma n Environmental Systems\n\n\nAbstract\nIt is becoming increasingly clear t hat humans and ecosystems form a single\, coupled human-environment system (HES) where humans not only cause negative ecosystem impacts\, but also r eact to them. Humans have highly diverse identities and complex social str uctures that affect our decision-making. We also have the ability to modif y our environments (and those of other organisms) in ways fundamentally di fferent from what other organisms do. This can lead to shifts in norms in how humans use\, abuse and/or protect ecological systems and in turn feedb ack on human behaviour. Despite this\, there are still far fewer examples of coupled mathematical models of human and ecological systems than mathe matical models of ecological systems themselves. We will present recent c ase studies in human-environment systems from our own work in forest pest and climate change mitigation. I discuss the challenges of this kind of re search and suggest areas and pathways through which mathematical models of human-environment sustainability could be enhanced in future research.\n LOCATION:https://stable.researchseminars.org/talk/BIRS_21w5191/18/ END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT SUMMARY:Louis Gross (University of Tennessee\, Knoxville) DTSTART:20210129T205000Z DTEND:20210129T213500Z DTSTAMP:20260404T041447Z UID:BIRS_21w5191/19 DESCRIPTION:Title: A Rational Basis for Hope: Human Behavior Modeling and Climat e Change\nby Louis Gross (University of Tennessee\, Knoxville) as part of BIRS workshop: Mathematics of Human Environmental Systems\n\n\nAbstrac t\nWhile climate models have rapidly advanced in sophistication over recen t decades\, they lack dynamic representation of human behavior and social systems despite strong feedbacks between social processes and climate. The impacts of climate change alter perceptions of risk and emissions behavio r that\, in turn\, influence the rate and magnitude of climate change. Add ressing this deficiency in climate models requires a substantial interdisc iplinary effort to couple models of climate and\nhuman behavior. I will di scuss efforts by a group of highly-interdisciplinary collaborators to crea te linked models of human behavior\, risk perception and global climate. O ur results indicate that\ninclusion of human behavioral change arising fro m the perception and experience of extreme events could have large impacts on temperature trajectories. Furthermore\, uncertainties in global temper ature trajectories arising from impacts of human behavior are similar in m agnitude to those arising from uncertainties of the physical components of climate models.\n LOCATION:https://stable.researchseminars.org/talk/BIRS_21w5191/19/ END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT SUMMARY:Hans Kaper (Georgetown University) DTSTART:20210129T220500Z DTEND:20210129T225000Z DTSTAMP:20260404T041447Z UID:BIRS_21w5191/20 DESCRIPTION:Title: Modeling Food System\nby Hans Kaper (Georgetown Universit y) as part of BIRS workshop: Mathematics of Human Environmental Systems\n\ n\nAbstract\nThe agricultural establishment has made significant progress in its efforts to improve agricultural productivity and efficiency. Yet\, with about one billion people hungry\, two billion people with insufficien t nutrients\, and over two billion people already overweight or obese\, un dernutrition and malnutrition are affecting more than half the world's pop ulation. Clearly\, when enough food is produced but sizable fractions of t he population suffer from malnutrition or are overweight\, we need to get a better understanding of the global food system. In this talk\, I will d escribe some recent efforts at modeling food systems and highlight researc h issues for MPE. \n(Joint work with Hans Engler\, Georgetown University) \n LOCATION:https://stable.researchseminars.org/talk/BIRS_21w5191/20/ END:VEVENT END:VCALENDAR