BEGIN:VCALENDAR VERSION:2.0 PRODID:researchseminars.org CALSCALE:GREGORIAN X-WR-CALNAME:researchseminars.org BEGIN:VEVENT SUMMARY:Ognyan Kounchev and Georgi Simeonov (Institute of Mathematics and Informatics\, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences) DTSTART:20210218T120000Z DTEND:20210218T130000Z DTSTAMP:20260404T095850Z UID:BMNI/1 DESCRIPTION:Title: How Long 'Lockdowns' Are Needed to End the COVID-19 Epidemic in a Sing le Country\, with or without Vaccinations\nby Ognyan Kounchev and Geo rgi Simeonov (Institute of Mathematics and Informatics\, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences) as part of Interdisciplinary Seminar on Biomathematics and S cientific Computing\n\n\nAbstract\nThe main purpose of the present lecture is to present a methodology for the estimation of the duration of the Epi demic of Covid-19 in a single country\, accounting for different scenarios . Our methodology is based on a specific SEIR model\, called ATVBG-SEIR mo del\, which is explained in detail. We include vaccinations in the model w hich are carried out according to a vaccination plan provided on a monthly basis. The algorithm takes into account the main constraint of the health system which is the number of Intensive Care Units (ICU) intended for Cov id-19 patients (they are e.g. about 1100 in Bulgaria\, about 8000 in Germa ny\, etc.). At the end\, we present a web-based Lockdown Scenarios Tool\, http://213.191.194.141:8890/apps/ATVBG-SEIR_v9.ipynb based on the algorith m implementing the methodology. Results are demonstrating the efficiency o f the tool by applying it to Covid-19 data from Austria\, Bulgaria\, Germa ny\, Italy\, UK and USA. \nThe lecture is based on the preprint available at https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3766521\n LOCATION:https://stable.researchseminars.org/talk/BMNI/1/ END:VEVENT END:VCALENDAR